More Signs Housing Nearing Bottom
by Blanche Evans

The litany of bad news this week hits all sectors of the economy, with consumers hit hardest. Analysts have long cited a combination of pressures on consumers: falling home prices, rising food and energy prices, the credit crunch and a deteriorating labor market.

Wholesale prices, what goods cost before they reach retail shelves, shot up 1.4 percent in May, says the Labor Department. That's the fastest growth in prices since last November.

Home prices have receded while consumer prices for food and gas have doubled since 2004. The negatively-biased Case-Shiller index says home prices in April were down over 17 percent since reaching their peak in 2005.

The stock market has lost trillions in gains. The DOW has dropped from over 14,000 points to below 12,000 for the first time since 2006.

The only thing that isn't down is unemployment, up to 5.5 percent from 4.5 percent this year.

People are paying more money for basics, they're losing value in their homes, they're not able to borrow, and their jobs are shaky.

No wonder consumer confidence is at its fifth lowest rate ever. The Conference Board index says consumer confidence is at 50.4, the lowest reading since the recession of 1992.

What that means is it's the perfect time to buy.

While pundits have been calling for a bottom for months, the fundamentals suggest we're close, because the bad news taken as a whole is worse than it seems.

Wholesale and retail prices are up on oil speculation. Seventy percent of futures traders in oil are speculators. What goes up will come down again.

Home prices have receded in 260 markets, but only 4.6 percent from April 07 to April 08, says the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That's a far cry from Case-Shiller's findings for 20 U.S. metros.

During Black Monday of 1987, the Dow lost 22 percent of its value, so we have a ways to go to match that.

During the recession of the early 90s, unemployment was two percent higher than it is now, so this housing slump is not job-driven, but speculation-driven.

Buyers who have good credit have access to the widest selection in homes since the '90s. They have interest rates three points below the average.

According to the housing reports, housing is still declining, but the pace of declines is slowing, which suggest we're near the bottom.

And here's the good news. Harvard's Joint Center For Housing Studies says that although recessions exacerbate housing downturns, there's usually a quick recovery.

So buyers -- start your engines.



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